Saturday, May 8, 2010

I've been busy

It has been a very busy time for me - but not with the trading. The last 4 months has seen the end of a project I have been working on for 7 years! I can finally see my way clear to increase the size of my two portfolios and use fixed size accounts. I have added funds to the SMSF portfolio and have started up a second portfolio in a family trust. Impeccable timing - just in time for another market meltdown! Although I am very lightly invested and so the start drawdown will be very small in percentage terms. The market filter has turned off and so I will not being placing any new trades for a while, by the look of it.
I have received emails from a couple of market gurus over the past year or two with their view of the market. The first one (surname begins with H) has advised his readers/clients to totally keep out of the market until just recently, based on his view of the world economy - and I know he normally just uses technicals and has actually written a book on his system/s. He advised to start buying when the market broke 5000 a few weeks ago.
The other guru 'L'(although at least he has stuck to his very good system, and not guessed) advised his clients to be basically all cash from Nov 07 to Nov 09.
I ran my system over this period to see if I would have been better just collecting 3% interest. You needed a lot of patience and the ability withstand a start drawdown of over 10%, but it certainly was better to just follow the signals, as can be seen from the equity graph. This is actually a walk forward test, as the system was designed prior to this period

STAR backtest Nov 07 to Nov 09

The green areas indicate the amount of cash held, with red being drawdown.